Promising to win the meeting
«I’ll see what I can do, I think it should be fine» buys ten calm minutes and destroys six months of credibility. Anything optimistic will be remembered as a commitment. Say only what you are willing to hear quoted back word for word in January.
Hiding behind the system
«That’s the pay policy, it’s out of my hands» removes you from the equation and tells the person there is no point talking to you. Even with no budget, you still control scope, timing, visibility and how the case is argued at review.
Negotiating against a resignation threat
Conceding immediately because an outside offer is on the table sets a price for the whole team: getting an offer is the fastest route to a raise. Take the threat seriously, but never let it be the criterion for the decision.
Turning it into a performance conversation
Sliding into «you still have things to work on» while refusing a raise is the surest way to turn a negotiation into a wound. If there is a genuine performance issue, it should have been raised earlier and separately — not deployed as a reason to say no.
Ending without a date
Closing on «let’s revisit this» leaves the person alone with the question for weeks — and those are precisely the weeks in which they answer recruiters. A date, even a distant one, beats a warm intention.